Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.805867 2.394296 3.194506 4.391365 6.188625e+00 8.878004e+00 1.339400e+01
2024-12-22 1.269318 1.924201 2.985699 4.940873 8.728439e+00 1.644466e+01 3.572492e+01
2024-12-29 0.958391 1.625342 2.884482 5.701358 1.277530e+01 3.326330e+01 1.205401e+02
2025-01-05 0.736481 1.374519 2.752668 6.456894 1.861683e+01 7.184669e+01 5.690812e+02
2025-01-12 0.537434 1.076973 2.368754 6.397945 2.315339e+01 1.347074e+02 3.227348e+03
2025-01-19 0.392793 0.832002 1.973623 6.006838 2.677153e+01 2.407065e+02 3.451765e+04
2025-01-26 0.313799 0.705134 1.817580 6.348102 3.671913e+01 6.324063e+02 3.780247e+08
2025-02-02 0.268075 0.641616 1.812793 7.432945 6.018878e+01 3.092779e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.235991 0.601077 1.865137 9.099546 1.112941e+02 4.578419e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.200419 0.534781 1.783886 10.027956 1.795970e+02 4.788450e+06 NaN
2025-02-23 0.164978 0.454143 1.591849 9.901286 2.400138e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.134824 0.379395 1.377988 9.236959 2.855006e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.117761 0.344961 1.338558 10.365060 5.410029e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.102878 0.312252 1.286282 11.418563 1.065509e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.091595 0.288330 1.264712 13.048599 2.629540e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.081578 0.265232 1.231475 14.654873 7.372893e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.069797 0.230514 1.100641 14.084897 1.247378e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.059214 0.197269 0.956757 12.760675 1.624126e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.052823 0.179663 0.904805 13.361178 4.933918e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.049032 0.171922 0.915893 15.844033 7.435018e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.046281 0.167800 0.952229 19.869521 2.596544e+12 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.042455 0.157248 0.929646 22.035724 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.037932 0.141833 0.854088 21.473401 NaN NaN NaN